Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 212.169588 258.495447 316.135033 394.472466 500.334110 6.417433e+02 8.509071e+02
2025-06-01 152.978437 203.033103 273.172049 382.720647 557.791770 8.433426e+02 1.386023e+03
2025-06-08 120.894809 169.558036 243.333740 370.332101 600.315494 1.040974e+03 2.089548e+03
2025-06-15 109.442649 161.558794 246.689997 408.044244 741.056379 1.505944e+03 3.921402e+03
2025-06-22 95.796586 146.544094 233.942187 411.753851 817.783297 1.901888e+03 6.363740e+03
2025-06-29 86.821516 137.180343 228.240283 426.401261 926.639790 2.493248e+03 1.135882e+04
2025-07-06 77.606881 125.615311 215.681097 422.185924 987.405671 3.017400e+03 1.873324e+04
2025-07-13 74.457988 124.333552 222.520419 464.017740 1204.326342 4.472624e+03 4.914620e+04
2025-07-20 71.121441 122.053331 226.709899 501.221457 1439.504642 6.584803e+03 1.615331e+05
2025-07-27 67.446426 118.474734 227.279250 529.411406 1671.688504 9.479720e+03 7.747720e+05
2025-08-03 63.478554 113.684943 224.114509 546.162874 1878.815740 1.318779e+04 8.896450e+06
2025-08-10 59.315106 107.903654 217.515925 550.477070 2039.789682 1.753060e+04 8.769375e+10
2025-08-17 54.612614 100.621115 206.588734 539.588783 2131.993768 2.215339e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 50.173582 93.413188 194.725000 522.271196 2181.210646 2.704870e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 46.238437 86.866545 183.485716 503.750779 2211.720822 3.254462e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 45.725164 87.890917 192.057598 560.573856 2821.836926 7.104739e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 43.323648 84.290026 187.574152 566.203638 3083.813358 1.122410e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 41.680975 82.268899 187.119283 588.492983 3542.481347 2.245854e+05 NaN
2025-09-28 39.326494 78.295504 180.456181 582.067613 3734.906653 3.615428e+05 NaN
2025-10-05 39.059067 79.334106 188.606648 646.214698 4866.127651 2.026610e+06 NaN
2025-10-12 38.495366 79.569757 194.447662 703.960475 6196.894918 4.466134e+07 NaN
2025-10-19 37.586756 78.823795 197.116463 748.135265 7594.211431 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 36.362751 77.127331 196.430940 774.552285 8879.136115 NaN NaN